Evening Coffee by Societe Generale

    New York coffee was under pressure of a stronger dollar all session. We fell in the first hour of trading to take out Friday's low only to rally back over the next 4½ hours to within eighty points of it's high. We fell over the next two hours to break the early low, but managed a late recovery, trading halfway back to the high as we closed. Lower high, lower low - a two-day pattern promising buy stops tomorrow above today's high.
    September New York (KCEU6) settled in its lower half (47%), down eighty-five points. Volume was thirty-seven percent below average at an estimated 28,018 lots including an estimated 1,166 EFP's, 9 EFS's, 576 TAS and 7,185 spreads. 2,481 calls and 3,201 puts also traded. The KCEU6-LRCU6 arbitrage: 65.61¢. Ratio: 1.8224. €: $1.1080-0.7%. BRL: 3.2989/$-0.9%. CRB: -2.3%. Crude oil: -5.4%. S&P500:-1.0%. Open interest: 176,195+1,592 (50-day stochastic: 21%; 125-day: 16%).
     September London (LRCU6) settled in its in its lower half as well (44%), down nine dollars. Volume was twenty-four percent below average at an estimated 13,408 lots including 3,599 spreads and 523 EFP's. 118 calls and 2,300 puts also traded. Open interest: 99,475+587 (50-day stochastic: 15%; 125-day: 6%).
     Honduras exported 592,530 60-kg bags of coffee in June, national coffee institute IHCAFE reports, down 18.5% from 726,893 bags last June. 9-month shipments were down 3.3% year-on-year to 4.368 mln bags.
     ICE Europe reports that managed money was a net buyer of 5,161 lots of robusta coffee in the week ending June 28th increasing their net long position to 11,775 lots. Other reportables were the biggest sellers, at 3,673 lots, cutting their net longs to 5,780 lots. Swap dealers sold 1,495 lots (short 6,198), non-reportable traders 868 (long 2,027). Commercial traders bought 874 lots leaving them short 13,385.
     Costa Rica shipped 159,655 60-kg bags of coffee in June down 2.4% from 163,606 bags in June 2015. Oct-Jun exports were 3.4% higher than one year earlier at 990,097 bags.