Evening Coffee by Societe Generale

     As often happens after a strong upside move such as yesterday's, New York coffee traded quietly in the upper half of yesterday's range - consolidation. We closed near the high for the week - the highest weekly close since the week of February 17th, 2015. Origin selling kept the market in check.
    December New York (KCEZ6) settled in its upper half (57%), unchanged on the day. Volume was twenty-two percent below average at an estimated 30,066 lots including an estimated 564 EFP's, 211 EFS's, 349 TAS and 6,652 spreads. 2,090 calls and 2,523 puts also traded. The KCEZ6-LRCF6 arbitrage: 66.47¢+1.29¢. Ratio: 1.7774-0.0235. €: $1.1161-0.3%. BRL: 3.2424/$+½%. CRB: +1.0%. Crude oil: +1.7%. S&P500:+½%. Open interest: 172,779+3,955.
     November London (LRCX6) settled near its high (95%), up thirteen dollars. Volume was thirty percent below average at an estimated 10,740 lots including 1,782 spreads and 636 EFP's. 4,179 calls and 4,589 puts also traded. Open interest: 103,563+732 (50-day stochastic: 91%; 125-day: 73%).
     Brazil exported 2,624,624 60-kg bags of coffee in August, the Trade Ministry reports,        down 1.7% from 2,669,920 bags in August 2015.
     Costa Rica exported 91,184 60-kg bags of coffee in August, the national coffee institute IHCAFE reports, up nearly 32% from 69,263 bags last August. 11-month shipments were up 6.2% year-on-year to 1,193,354 bags.
     Colombia could produce as many as 20 mln 60-kg bags of coffee per year by 2020 if a peace accord with Marxist FARC rebels is approved in a plebiscite and more tree are planted in areas affected by the war, Finance Minister Mauricio Cardenas told Reuters. Output this year is expected to total 14.5-15 mln bags.
     CFTC reports that large speculators were net sellers of 16 lots of Coffee “C” in the week ending August 30th leaving them net long 27,816. Large hedgers sold 2,736 lots increasing their net short position to 71,878. Index traders bought 3,388 (long 39,471). Small traders sold 635 lots (long 4,591).
     The New York market, and this office, will closed on Monday, September 5th for the Labor Day holiday. The London market, and office, will remain open (and staffed). John Bernardi