Evening Coffee by Societe Generale

New York coffee rallied three-and-one-half cents to a three-day high in the first half of the session then fell nearly 5¼¢ over the next two-and-one-half hours. We spent the rest of the day in a two-cent range off the low, near the middle of which we closed. Brazil was closed for Republic Proclamation Day. 69% of the day's volume was in switches ahead of first notice day for Dec16, November 21,
     January London traded steadily higher throughout the session, closing at its highest level since November 7th - the life-of-contract high close of $2194.
    March New York (KCEH7) settled one-and-one half cents from its low, 3.70 cents from its high, down fifteen points on the day. Volume was average at an estimated 41,600 lots including an estimated 1,014 EFP's, 412 EFS's, 866 TAS and 14,364 spreads. 2,676 calls and 2,879 puts also traded. The KCEZ6-LRCF7 arbitrage: 65.09¢. Ratio: 1.6718. €: $1.0725-0.1%. BRL: 3.4381/$-0.2%. CRB: +1½%. Crude oil: +4.7%. S&P500:+0.6%. Open interest: 207,497-4,186 (50-day stochastic: 60%; 125-day: 68%).
     January London (LRCF7) settled seven dollars from its high, up thirty-seven dollars. Volume was average at an estimated 18,843 lots including 4,757 spreads and 658 EFP's. 2,525 calls and 1,100 puts also traded . Open interest: 102,134-1,826 (50-day stochastic: 8%; 125-day: 13%).
     CFTC reports that large speculators were net buyers of 3,043 lots of Coffee "C" in the week ending November 8th leaving them long a record 58,960 lots. ICE Europe reports that managed money was a net seller of 4,543 lots over the same period cutting their net long position to 32,927 lots. See datasheet for other details.
     Coffee stocks in the European ports of Antwerp, Bremen, Hamburg, Genoa, Le Havre and Trieste fell 1¼% in September to 707,779 tonnes the European Coffee Federation estimates. Stocks in Genoa rose 2.95%. Stocks in the others fell by 1¼% to 3.88%. Stocks in Bremen have not been updated since August 2015.
     The Green Coffee Association estimates that U.S. warehouse stocks of coffee beans totaled 6,207,005 bags at the end of October, up 7,982 bags during the month. This is 4.35% higher than the 5,948,228 bags that were in store one year earlier. Over the 1985 to 2015 period, stocks fell by an average of 177,210 bags during October, the third biggest month for declines.