Evening Coffee by Societe Generale
After taking out yesterday's high by a single tick in the first half hour of active
trading, New York coffee was on the defensive the rest of the way. The London market
peaked about an hour after New York but fell seven dollars short of yesterday's high.
London fell sharply just after its settlement period to trigger stops below yesterday's
low. New York than took the baton, increasing the day's loss by over 2½¢, trading 5¢
lower on the day.
December New York (KCEZ6) settled near its low (15%), down 4.15¢. Volume was
thirty-three percent below average at an estimated 27,236 lots including an estimated
491 EFP's, 106 EFS's, 212 TAS and 5,568 spreads. 2,100 calls and 1,286 puts also
traded. The KCEZ6-LRCF6 arbitrage: 63.22¢-1.12¢. Ratio: 1.7701-0.0084. €: $1.1269-
0.4%. BRL: 3.2269/$+0.2%. CRB: -1.4%. Crude oil: -1.7%. S&P500:-0.4%. Open
interest: 164,169-637 (50-day stochastic: 0%; 125-day: 0%).
November London (LRCX6) settled in its bottom third (31%), down eleven dollars.
Volume was fifty percent above average at an estimated 22,498 lots including 6,637
spreads 623 EFP's and 4,500 EFS's - 2,250 Sep16 and 2,250 Jul17. 200 calls and 486
puts also traded. Open interest: 109,928-2,132 (50-day stochastic: 76%; 125-day:
Uganda exported 268,490 60-kg bags of coffee in July, the Uganda Coffee
Development Authority reports, down 33% from 403,381 bags last July due to massive
flower and berry abortion caused by dryness. That brings the total shipped in the crop
year to 2.82 mln bags down from 2.85 mln bags one year earlier. August exports are
expected to be down as well, 265,000 bags from 320,289 in 2015.
Mild to warm temperatures and minimal rainfall will dominate coffee production
areas in Brazil during the next week...There is no threat of frost. - World Weather, Inc.
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