Evening Coffee by Societe Generale

     Falling one-half cent short of yesterday's high in the opening minute, New York coffee traded steadily lower the rest of the session, touching yesterday's low in the first minute of the settlement period. Action was again dominated by switching ahead of next Thursday's first notice day for Sep16 (August 23rd).
     Key support remains at 136.95¢ in Sep16.
     The U.S. dollar index sold off after weak U.S. productivity data dampened hopes of a Federal Reserve rate hike. The Brazil's real rallied after its Senate voted to start the  impeachment process against President Dilma Rousseff but...
    September New York (KCEU6) settled two ticks from its low (3%), down 2.45¢. Volume was thirty-three percent above normal at an estimated 53,485 lots including an estimated 1,279 EFP's, 3 EFS's, 3.265 TAS and 21,712 spreads. 1,428 TAS spreads traded. 3,764 calls and 4,276 puts also traded. The KCEU6-LRCU6 arbitrage: 56.86¢-1.53¢. Ratio: 1.6895-0.0182. €: $1.1176+½%. BRL: 3.1259/$+0.6%. CRB: -0.9%. Crude oil: -2.3%. S&P500:-0.4%. Open interest: 184,791-2,638 (50-day stochastic: 52%; 125-day: 49%).
     September London (LRCU6) settled in its bottom quarter (22%), down one dollar. Volume was thirty-three percent below average at an estimated 9,359 lots including 3,237 spreads and 321 EFP's. 1,015 calls and 105 puts also traded. Open interest: 108,625+265 (50-day stochastic: 93%; 125-day: 26%).
     The weather forecast for Brazil's coffee belt this Friday morning is a little colder than yesterday's. A few lower- and middle-single-digit centigrade lows may occur in the traditionally coolest locations of southern Sul de Minas, but no frost is expected. - World Weather, Inc. (Somar says 2º-4º C.)
John Bernardi