Evening Coffee by Societe Generale

     New York coffee traded in a two-cent range above yesterday's high over its first 4½ hours then spent the rest of the session in decline. We fell almost eight cents from the 14-month high to close below yesterday's low - and outside-down key reversal. In the same fashion, Sep16 London fell from a 12-month high to close below yesterday's low, also a key reversal.  
     Sep16 New York bounced off its exponential uptrend line. Daily uptrend at 144.56¢ on Monday. Key support at chart gap between 145.05¢ and 144.35¢.
    September New York (KCEU6) settled near its low (7%), down 4.60¢. Volume was two percent below average at an estimated 39,355 lots including an estimated 1,245 EFP's, 317 EFS's, 463 TAS and 9,417 spreads. 8,495 calls and 6,609 puts also traded. The KCEU6-LRCU6 arbitrage: 67.74¢. Ratio: 1.8210. €: $1.1066-½%. BRL: 3.2560/$-0.1%. CRB: -0.7%. Crude oil: +0.9%. S&P500:-0.2%. Open interest: 183,682+1,992 (50-day stochastic: 48%; 125-day: 38%).
     September London (LRCU6) settled near its low as well (15%), down twenty-three dollars. Volume was forty-eight percent above average at an estimated 24,516 lots including 8,964 spreads and 3555 EFP's. 3,308 calls and 1,671 puts also traded. Open interest: 98,237-214 (50-day stochastic: 9%; 125-day: 3%).
     GCA U.S. coffee stocks rose 126,424 bags in June to 6,210,612.  This up 12.7% from the 5,510,114 bags in store at the end of last June.
     CFTC reports that large hedgers were net sellers of 4,015 lots of Coffee ‘Cֹ’ in the week ending July 12th leaving them net short 76,902 lots (record short 130,157 lots). Large speculators bought 2,522 lots, increasing their long position to 35,314 (record long 56,205). Index traders decreased their net long position by 454 lots to 34,173 (record long 67,021 lots).Small traders bought 1,947 lots (long 7,414).
John Bernardi