Evening Coffee by Societe Generale

After trading in positive territory in early action, New York coffee ran stops above yesterday's highs in the first half hour of active trading. We stayed mostly above yesterday's highs for the next three hours then fell sharply, three-and-one-half cents off the highs, finding support in the neighborhood of yesterday's opening levels. We closed lower on the day after taking out the previous day's high, negative action technically. A trade below today's low (146.25¢ in Sep16) would confirm the break of a daily uptrend (using a normal scale), dating back to June 1st. Key support remains in the form of a chart gap between 145.05¢ and 144.35¢
    September settled near its low (17%), down five points, Volume was thirty-nine percent below average at an estimated 23,596 lots including an estimated 800 EFP's, 2 EFS's, 125 TAS and 6,459 spreads. 2,461 calls and 2,536 puts also traded. The KCEU6-LRCU6 arbitrage: 64.61¢-0.37¢. Ratio: 1.7835+0.0053 €: $1.1018+0%. BRL: 3.2875/-0.8$%. CRB: -0.8%. Crude oil: -2.2%. S&P500: -0.7%. Open interest:  186,514-429 (50-day stochastic: 59%; 125-day: 47%).
     September London (LRCU6) settled in its bottom quarter (23%), up two dollars. Volume was fifty percent below average at an estimated 7,961 lots including 2,362 spreads and 370 EFP's. 1,480 calls and 1,000 puts also traded. Open interest: 103,215+300 (50-day stochastic: 37%; 125-day: 14%).
     Cool temperatures will continue into Saturday in southern coffee production areas of Brazil. Temperatures will stop short of the damage threshold, but extreme lows in the traditionally coolest areas of southern Sul de Minas may slip to three of four degrees centigrade (World Weather, Inc.). In the period between July 26th and 30th, a high pressure area will cover main coffee areas, bringing cold nights (without risk of freezing), and low levels of air humidity at afternoons.