Evening Coffee by Societe Generale
New York coffee rallied 2¼¢ over its first fifteen minutes today, fueled by buy stops above yesterdays highs. We traded in a three-cent range around that high for most of the rest of the session, breaking out of the top of that range towards the close. Active Sep16 closed near its high after opening at its low, a very strong white body in candlestick jargon. Spreading was again active. Open interest was down nearly 5,000 lots reflecting yesterday's action (short covering). Origin selling was heavy today (new selling) so another big decline is not as likely.
No other threat of frost nor freeze will occur in Brazil coffee areas again for the next ten days and rain will return to some of the southern production areas this weekend and especially next week. - World Weather, Inc.
September New York (KCEU6) settled near its high (91%), up 3.05¢. Volume was thirteen percent above average at an estimated 51,892 lots including an estimated 1,156 EFP's, 1,380 EFS's, 1,253 TAS and 17,280 spreads. 3,519 calls and 7,648 puts also traded. The KCEU6-LRCU6 arbitrage: 64.99¢. Ratio: 1.8704. €: $1.1268+½%. BRL: 3.4664/$+½%. CRB: -¼%. Crude oil: -0%. S&P500:+0.3%. Open interest: 182,178-4,988 (50-day stochastic: 16%; 125-day: 39%).
September London (LRCU6) settled two-thirds to its low (33%), down five dollars. Volume was thirty-six percent above average at an estimated 25,069 lots including 8,592 spreads, 170 EFS's and 170 EFP's. 1,870 calls and 1,338 puts also traded. Open interest: 102,761+1,443 (50-day stochastic: 7%; 125-day: 4%).
The Green Coffee Association estimates that U.S. green coffee stocks rose 61,187 bags in May to 6,084,188 bags. Over the 1989 to 2015 period, the stocks have risen an average of 39,413 bags in May. Last year the rose 85,372 bags to 5,289,450 bags.
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