Evening Coffee by Societe Generale
After brief selloff five minutes before the beginning of active trading took us to within twenty points of yesterday's lows, New York coffee traded steadily higher the rest of the way, trading to its highest level sine April 21st, closing at its best level since March 28th. The market closed higher than its opening for the sixth straight session, above the previous day's high for the fifth consecutive day. Granted, the rally over the previous two days was short covering (open interest down 4,976 lots), but the total open interest increased by 16,000 lots as the market traded to its low, and it has only fallen 6,000 lots (before today) on this rally, and the market is already four cents higher than where it was when the aggressive new selling began.
July New York (KCEN6) settled one tick from its high (98%), up one cent. Volume was one percent below average at an estimated 40,954 lots including an estimated 403 EFP's, 28 EFS's, 1,099 TAS and 12,866 spreads. 3,440 calls and 3,367 puts also traded. The KCEN6-LRCN6 arbitrage: 53.58¢. Ratio: 1.7069. €: $1.1419+½%. BRL: 3.4449/$+0.8%. CRB: +1.4%. Crude oil: +3.8%. S&P500:-0.6%. Open interest: 189,256-2,773 (50-day stochastic: 50%; 125-day: 60%). No delivery notices were issued.
July London (LRCN6) settled near its high (89%), up eleven dollars. Volume was forty percent below average at an estimated 11,035 lots including 2,616 spreads and 750 EFP's. 2,685 calls and 3,405 puts also traded. Open interest: 106,557+75 (50-day stochastic: 5%; 125-day: 5%). No tenders were posted.
Brazil exported 2.406 mln 60-kg bags (and equivalent) in April, exporter group Cecafé estimates, down 25% from 3.207 mln bags in April 2015. This is mostly due to the sharp fall in conillon exports, which fell 89% year-on-year to 59,214 bags from 528,592 bags last year. Arábica exports were down 11% to 2.091 mln bags, processed coffee down 21% to 256,240 bags-equivalent. 12-month total exports are still 2½% behind one year earlier at 36.046 mln bags versus 36.951 mln.
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