Evening Coffee by Societe Generale

After a rally attempt early in the active trading period fell eighty points short of yesterday's high, New York coffee sold off for the next ninety minutes finding light stops below yesterday's lows. We inched higher the rest of the session to close near the middle of the day's range, forty points above the opening. The dollar lost 1½¢ to the Brazilian real. Peripheral markets were mixed.
     Daily uptrend from March 1 is at 120.51¢ in Jul16 tomorrow.
    July New York (KCEN6) settled midrange (47%), up thirty-five points. Volume was five percent below average at an estimated 38,386 lots including an estimated 562 EFP's, 42 EFS's, 993 TAS and 13,803 spreads. 3,270 calls and 1,109 puts also traded. The KCEN6-LRCN6 arbitrage: 47.14¢. Ratio: 1.6314. €: $1.1183+½%. BRL: 3.5964/$+0.4%. CRB: +0.3%. Crude oil: +½%. S&P500:+0%. Open interest: 196,842+1,256 (50-day stochastic: 86%; 125-day: 78%).
     July London (LRCN6) settled in its upper half (56%), down two dollars. Volume was twelve percent below average at an estimated 14,718 lots including 4,422 spreads and 1,096 EFP's. 1,560 calls and 2,282 puts also traded. Open interest: 109,064-840 (50-day stochastic: 16%; 125-day: 11%).
     The International Coffee Organization reports exports of 9.324 mln 60-kg bags in April down 8.1% from 10.144 mln bags in April 2015. Robustas fell 14.1% to 3.444 mln bags, Brazil naturals were down 13.3% to 2.416 mln bags, Colombian milds were down 1.6% to 1.073 mln bags. Other milds rose 5.9% to 2.389 mln bags. Oct-Apr shipments were up 0.7% to 65.197 mln bags from 64.734 mln.
     May coffee-bean exports from Indonesia's main growing area on Sumatra island total 4,637.20 tonnes, down over 75% from 18,818.74 tonnes in May 2015. 8-month total exports were down 43% from one year earlier to 93,375.06 tonnes from 163,715.67.
     Honduras' May coffee exports totaled 754,299 60-kg bags, the Honduran Coffee Institute reports, up 5.3% from 716,208 bags in May 2015. The May 2015 number was revised downwards, however, from an original estimate of 854,052 bags.
     World Weather, Inc. calls for waves of frequent rain in Brazilian coffee areas through Sunday, mostly from Parana to São Paulo, but some of it in Sul de Minas and Rio de Janeiro. The precipitation will be greater than usual and will be a deterrent for harvesting and may raise some concern over bean conditions.
John Bernardi