Evening Coffee by Societe Generale

New York coffee rallied to a six-day high during the first hour of active trading, eliciting steady selling again from origin. We fell 3.60¢ from the high over the next two hours only to bounce back to trade within one cent of the high as the closing bell rang. A symmetrical day, the close was 1.40¢ from the day's high, the open 1.35¢ above the low. We closed back below yesterday's high after breaking it, technically soft. Day's action describes a spinning top, a sign that the market may be running out of steam, to be confirmed by a close below today's low (140.65¢ in Sep16).
     First notice day for Jul16 is Wednesday, June 22nd.
    September New York (KCEU6) settled in its upper half (61%), 1.40¢ higher. Volume was thirty-four percent above average at an estimated 61,645 lots including an estimated 561 EFP's, 46 EFS's, 546 TAS and 23,262 spreads. 8,781 calls and 3,216 puts also traded. The KCEU6-LRCU6 arbitrage: 65.37¢. Ratio: 1.8609. €: $1.1284%. BRL: 3.4252/$+1.2%. CRB: +1.9%. Crude oil: +4.6%. S&P500:-0.2%. Open interest: 180,688+576 (50-day stochastic: 8%; 125-day: 34%).
     September London (LRCU6) settled below the middle (46%), up twenty-six dollars. Volume was thirty-eight percent above average at an estimated 25,329 lots including 7,779 spreads, 185 EFP's and 1,076 EFS's. 3,920 calls and 1,250 puts also traded. Open interest: 104,684+2,576 (50-day stochastic: 17%; 125-day: 8%).
     (Brazilian coffee belt) temperatures will be seasonably mild to warm through the next week to ten days. - World Coffee Weather
     CFTC reports that large speculators were net buyers of 16,761 lots of Coffee “C” in the week ending June 14th leaving them net long 19,137 lots (the record long position was 67,021 lots). Large hedgers were the big sellers at 16,512 lots increasing their net short position to 57,079 (record short 130,157). Index traders bought 73 lots (long 32,721, record long 67,021). Small traders sold 322 lots (long 5,221). John Bernardi