Evening Coffee by Societe Generale

New York coffee rallied nearly two cents in the first hour of active trading (speculative/fund buying), trading past the middle of yesterday's range, then fell the rest of the session, closing below the previous day's low for the second straight session, below the opening levels for the fifth straight day. Volume was subpar. The Brazilian real was down over 6½¢ against the dollar.
     Daily downtrend from April 21st at 122.20¢ tomorrow in Jul16 Coffee “C”. Daily uptrend from February 25th at $1571 in Jul16 robusta.
    July New York (KCEN6) settled near its low (4%), down forty points. Volume was nineteen percent below average at an estimated 35,224 lots including an estimated 561 EFP's, one EFS, 602 TAS and 13,095 spreads. 5,847 calls and 5,422 puts also traded. The KCEN6-LRCN6 arbitrage: 48.20¢. Ratio: 1.6730. €: $1.1507-¼%. BRL: 3.5652/$-1.8%. CRB: -1½%. Crude oil: -2.6%. S&P500:-0.9%. Open interest: 188,457+3,245 (50-day stochastic: 46%; 125-day: 58%). No notices were issued.
     July London (LRCN6) settled in its lower half (44%), down nine dollars. Volume was thirty-seven percent below average at an estimated 11,611 lots including 2,745 spreads and 575 EFP's. 3,170 calls and 2,700 puts also traded. Open interest: 105,926+133 (50-day stochastic: 0%; 125-day: 0%).
     ICE Europe reports that commercial traders were net sellers of 2,853 lots (and options equivalent) of robusta coffee in the week ending April 26th cutting their net long position to 9,685 lots. Swap dealers bought 1,870 lots reducing their shorts to 12,739. Managed money bought 883 lots (short 4,414). Other reportables bought 644 lots (long 6,784). Non-reportable traders sold 543 lots (long 685).
     Brazil's Trade Ministry reports that 2,232,243 60-kg bags of coffee were shipped in April, down 19.6% from 2,775,268 bags in March, down 20.7% from 2,814,950 bags in April 2015.
     Honduras exported 732,321 60-kg bags of coffee in April, national coffee institute IHCAFÉ says, up 3.2% from 709,924 bags last year. 7-month shipments were down 0.1% year-on-year to 3.073 mln bags.
John Bernardi