Evening Coffee by Societe Generale

     New York coffee quietly consolidated yesterday's sharp drop, trading in a narrow range 1.10¢ either side of unchanged. The close below yesterday's low - at the lowest settlement since March 3rd - confirms the completion of a head-and-shoulders continuation pattern which bodes a test of the life-of-contract lows - 115.35¢ in Jul16. That is unless we break back above the downtrend line starting on April 21st, which will be at 125.20¢ tomorrow in the Jul16 contract, falling one cent per day thereafter.
    July New York (KCEN6) settled three-quarters to its low (25%), down fifty-five points. Volume was twelve percent below average at an estimated 38,682 lots including an estimated 942 EFP's, 3,614 EFS's (3,606 in Jul16), 329 TAS and 11,200 spreads. 7,559 calls and 3,746 puts also traded. The KCEN6-LRCN6 arbitrage: 49.75¢. Ratio: 1.6950. €: $1.1351+¼%. BRL: 3.4946/$+0.9%. CRB: +0.4%. Crude oil: +1.2%. S&P500:-1.0%. Open interest: 180,770+1,846 (50-day stochastic: 9%; 125-day: 39%). No notices were issued against May16.
     July London (LRCN6) settled near its high (83%), up five dollars. Volume was two percent below average at an estimated 17,828 lots including 6,521 spreads and 592 EFP's. 6,400 calls and 300 puts also traded. Open interest: 112,778-133 (50-day stochastic: 16%; 125-day: 18%).
     Nicaragua exported 224,601 60-kg bags of coffee in March, export center Cetrex reports, down 10.7% from March 2015. That brings the total shipped in the first half of the crop year to 639,790 bags, down 9.3% from the same period one year earlier
     Limited rainfall and cooler temperatures ease stress to developing coffee in São Paulo and Minas Gerais, Brazil at this time. More rain would benefit blooming trees in Mexico and Central America. Mostly favorable conditions for the flowering main crop in Colombia. - DTN/The Progressive Farmer  
John Bernardi