Evening Coffee by Societe Generale

    A brief rally attempt in New York coffee at the start of active trading fell one-half cent shy of unchanged whereupon the market shifted fortunes and fell the rest of the session. We closed 3¼¢ from the day's high, below yesterday's low. The 9-day smoothed slow stochastic slipped back into sell mode confirming a bearish divergence on the recent rally to seventeen-month highs.
     Daily uptrend starting on 17-August will be at 150.25¢ in December NY on Monday. 1-June uptrend at 144.57¢. November London 31-August uptrend broken today. 18-August uptrend at $1898. 5-April uptrend at $1834.
    December New York (KCEZ6) settled near its low (3%), down 3.90¢. Volume was 7½% above average at an estimated 33,849 lots including an estimated 1,326 EFP's, 69 EFS's, 173 TAS and 8,238 spreads. 4,527 calls and 3,972 puts also traded. The KCEZ6-LRCF7 arbitrage: 61.48¢. Ratio: 1.6817. €: $1.1235+¼%. BRL: 3.2368/$-½%. CRB: -1.7%. Crude oil: -3.8%. S&P500:-½%. Open interest: 183,771+4,518 (50-day stochastic: 79%; 125-day: 56%).
     November London (LRCX6) settled in its bottom quarter (16%), down thirty-six dollars. Volume was ten percent below average at an estimated 12,689 lots including 4,434 spreads and 398 EFP's. 505 calls and 1,245 puts also traded. Open interest: 118,008+2,681 (50-day stochastic: 100%; 125-day: 83%).
     The Brazilian government sold all 69,670 bags on offer at yesterday's auction of official government coffee stocks.
     No rain fell in Brazil coffee production areas Thursday and today will be mostly dry. Showers will develop from Rio de Janeiro to Cerrado Mineiro Saturday and shift northward Sunday through Wednesday of next week. Most of the shower will stay light and should not induce any significant flowering. - World Weather, Inc.
     CFTC reports that large speculators were net buyers of 1,791 lots of Coffee “C” in the week ending September 20th leaving them net long 39,951 lots. Large hedgers sold 1,885 leaving them short 84,240. Index traders sold 363 lots ( long 39,803). Small traders bought 457 lots  (long 4,486).
John Bernardi