Evening Coffee by Societe Generale

     A quiet end to a quiet month for coffee. The New York market finished the market down thirty points (-0.2% in the second month). The three-month gain is still a solid twenty percent, the year's gain just over fifteen percent. The London market fell a bit this month as well, down 0.7%, breaking its five-month streak of closing higher than where it had opened. The three-month gain is over nine percent, the 2016 rise over twenty percent. The biggest gainer on the month was heating oil, which rallied nearly eleven percent. Oats fell about twenty percent. The dollar-real was off one-half percent for the month.
     In a daily perspective, Dec16 KC remains stuck in the range set on August 24th - 147.80¢ to 142.25¢. Nov16 RC closed at a five-day high, breaking a short-term downtrend line in the process.
    Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff was removed from office today, as was long expected.
    December New York (KCEZ6) settled near its high, up one cent. Volume was below average at an estimated 25,196 lots including an estimated 667 EFP's, one EFS, 562 TAS and 5,473 spreads. 3,821 calls and 5,6712 puts also traded. The KCEZ6-LRCF6 arbitrage: 62.82¢. Ratio: 1.7499. €: $1.1154+0.1%. BRL: 3.2233/$+½%. CRB: -1.4%. Crude oil: -3.3%. S&P500:-0.4%. Open interest: .
     November London (LRCX6) settled near its high as well, up twelve dollars. Volume was average at an estimated 40,556 lots including 5,888 spreads and 24,440 EFP's (12,812 Sep16, 11,617 Nov16. 1,025 calls and 1,060 puts also traded. Open interest: 113,544+1,242.
     The wet bias in southern Brazil will continue into early next week with a few waves of additional rain possible. The wetter bias may induce some new flowering in a few pockets and help support pollination in those areas that have already flowered. World Weather, Inc.
John Bernardi