Evening Coffee by Societe Generale

     New York coffee traded steadily lower, as it did yesterday, but at not quite as steep a decline. Continued weakness in the Brazilian real (down thirteen cents over the past two days) is the ostensible reason for the selloff, but the selling was mostly speculative and likely chart-related. A selloff in world equities contributed to the softer tone. Active May16 closed below its 40-day moving average for the first time since March 3rd. Daily downtrend dating back the  March 23rd high (the key reversal) was at 125.14¢ today, will fall to 123.74¢ tomorrow.
    May New York (KCEK6) settled near its low (15%), down 1.90¢. Volume was fifty-nine percent above average at an estimated 64,580 lots including an estimated 1,205 EFP's, 692 TAS and 26,688 spreads. 6,005 calls and 7,128 puts also traded. The KCEK6-LRCK6 arbitrage: 54.79¢. Ratio: 1.8290. €: $1.1385-0.1%. BRL: 3.6718/$-1.4%. CRB: -0.3%. Crude oil: +1½%. S&P500:-0.7%. Open interest: 197,410-398 (50-day stochastic: 70%; 125-day: 80%).
     May London (LRCK6) settled two thirds to its low (33%), down sixteen dollars. Volume was twelve percent above average at an estimated 18,199 lots including 6,602 spreads and 1,061 EFP's. 1,070 calls and 950 puts also traded. Open interest: 121,543-519 (50-day stochastic: 3%; 125-day: 42%).   
     Honduran coffee  exports fell 2.9% year-on-year in March to 762,333 60 kg bags from 784,929. That brings the total shipped in the first half of the crop year to 2.47 mln bags, up 4.3% from the Oct14-Mar15 period.
     Guatemala exported 326,197 60-kg bags of coffee in March, down 10.8% from 365,658 bags last March.
     Costa Rican March exports were 6.4% higher than one year earlier at 175,447 bags from 164,967 bags. Six-month exports were down 1.6% to 488,132 bags.
     Uganda exported 271,941 60-kg bags of coffee in February, the Uganda Coffee Development Authority reports, down 6.4% from 290,475 bags last year. John Bernardi