Evening Coffee by Societe Generale

New York coffee gapped up on Wednesday, trading as much as 1¾¢ higher on the opening and taking the active May16 contract up more than twenty percent from its life-of-contract low, an event that some technical traders think signals the start of a bull market. That thought was quickly squashed, however, as the market reversed direction immediately, falling over seven cents from the high over the next four-and-one-half hours. A five-month high followed by a five-day low. We found support at the daily uptrend line dating back to the second day of March and spent the rest of the day trading quietly in a range no more than two cents off the low. The U.S. trade-weighted dollar index traded strongly higher for the fourth straight session.
    May16 closed below yesterday's low after opening above its high - an outside-down day, a key reversal.
    May New York (KCEK6) settled in its lower third,  (26%), down 3½¢. Volume was thirteen percent below average at an estimated 32,314 lots including an estimated 837 EFP's, one EFS, 550 TAS and 9,132 spreads. 4,887 calls and 6,021 puts also traded. The KCEK6-LRCK6 arbitrage: 62.38¢. Ratio: 1.9078. €: $1.1180-0.3%. BRL: 3.6731/$-2½%. CRB: -2.2%. Crude oil: -3.6%. S&P500:-¾%. Open interest: 196,145+1,523 (50-day stochastic: 62%; 125-day: 77%).
     May London (LRCK6) settled in its lower half (38%), up one dollar. Volume was thirty-three percent above average at an estimated 20,725 lots including 5,199 spreads and 1,051 EFP's. 1,775 calls and 1,065 puts also traded. Open interest: 125,479-1,969 (50-day stochastic: 0%; 125-day: 53%). Three retenders were posted.
     Both the New York and London markets are closed on Friday (Good Friday). London markets will remain closed on Monday (Easter Monday), while the New York market will open at its usual time (bad move ICE!). The commitments of traders report will be released this Friday at its usual time.
John Bernardi