Evening Coffee by Societe Generale

London coffee fell on the opening to trigger sell stops at three-day lows, took out those
lows shorty after the New York market's opening. New York, however, did not get closer
than one-half cent to yesterday's low then bounced back to near unchanged toward the start
of active trading. We took out yesterday's high by one tick towards the end of the first hour
of active trading but fell thirty points shy of last Friday's - and the last two weeks' - high of
117.50¢ in Mar16. Shanghai stocks fell to their lowest level since the first week of December, 2014. U.S.
equities have currently recovered most of yesterday's losses. March New York (KCEH6) settled near its high (80%), up one-quarter cent. Volume was twenty percent above average at an estimated 35,116 lots including an estimated 897 EFP's, 105 EFS's, 400 TAS and 12,969 spreads. 2,448 calls and 3,292 puts also traded.
The KCEH6-LRCH6 arbitrage: 53.28¢. Ratio: 1.8450. €: $1.0843-0.1%. BRL: 4.0634/$+0.7%. CRB: +1.8%. Crude oil: +6.3%. Open interest: 204,628-254 (50-day stochastic: 97%; 125-day: 97%). March London (LRCH6) settled in its upper half (64%), up one dollar. Volume was thirty-
five  percent below average at an estimated 9,399 lots including 2,302 spreads and 722
EFP's. 1,449 calls and 434 puts also traded. Open interest: 138,464-226 (50-day stochastic:
97%; 125-day: 95%). 19 retenders were posted. (2,354 original tenders, 500 retenders this
month)
Nicaragua exported 58,370 60-kg bags of coffee in December, export center Cetrex
estimates, 22.2% higher than in December 2014. The brings the total shipped in the first
quarter of the crop year to 125,135 bags, 29.7% less than in the Oct14-Dec14 quarter.
2014-2015 exports fell 0.2% to 1,766,161 bags from 1,770,043 bags in 2013/2014.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development estimates that Vietnam will export
149,000 tonnes of coffee in January. 2015 exports totaled 1.34 million tonnes, they added.
John Bernardi