Evening Coffee by Societe General

New York coffee trended lower the first half of the session, sell stops at 11-day lows taking the market down just over three cents. We reversed track on the back of a stronger Brazilian currency over the next 4½ hours breaking into positive territory by just under one-half cent. We closed about where we opening, the second day in a row - a double doji in candlestick jargon indicating market indecision. To be considered positive, May15 must take out Wednesday's high - 130.00¢.
     A bearish-engulfing reversal was seen in the London market.
    May New York (KCEK6) settled near its high (81%), down twenty points. Volume was seventeen percent above average at an estimated 46,372 lots including an estimated 642 EFP's, 27 EFS's, 2,108 TAS and 16,213 spreads. 3,612 calls and 2,545 puts also traded. The KCEK6-LRCK6 arbitrage: 56.67¢. Ratio: 1.8226. €: $1.1398+0.2%. BRL: 3.5631/$0.8%. CRB: -1½%. Crude oil: -3.8%. S&P500:+0.6%. Open interest: 197,463-766 (50-day stochastic: 67%; 125-day: 80%).
     May London (LRCK6) settled near its low (14%), down sixteen dollars. Volume was thirty-three percent above average at an estimated 21,417 lots including 6,568 spreads and 255 EFP's. 576 calls and 300 puts also traded. Open interest: 120,798-383 (50-day stochastic: 0%; 125-day: 40%).
     CFTC reports little change in its commitments of traders report: large specs sold 455 lots (long 19,068), index traders sold 310 lots (long 32,703), large hedgers bought 96 lots (short 56,111), small traders bought 669 lots (long 4,340).
    Brazil's trade ministry puts March coffee exports at 2,775,268 60-kg bags vs. 2,668,775 bags in February and 2,860,385 bags in March 2015.
     Honduras' March coffee shipments fell to 762,333 60-kg bags from 784,929 bags in 2015.