Evening Coffee- April 15, 2016
New York coffee traded inside yesterday's range in reduced volume closing one half cent below the opening print, a second consecutive spinning top. Spreading was again the focus. At a loss for direction, the market will likely continue in the same direction upon taking yesterday's low (122.65¢ in Jul16) or Wednesday's high (127.20¢ in Jul16). Symmetrical triangle formation favors continuation of trend preceding it, in this case lower.
The Brazilian real was lower ahead of Sunday's congressional vote on the impeachment of President Rousseff. If both the congress and then the senate vote to impeach, then Rousseff will likely be out of office a couple of months after.
July New York (KCEN6) settled in the middle of its range (49%), down one-quarter cent. Volume was eighteen percent below average at an estimated 35,936 lots including an estimated 488 EFP's, 4 EFS's, 715 TAS and 13,543 spreads. 1,921 calls and 1,691 puts also traded. The KCEN6-LRCN6 arbitrage: 54.48¢. Ratio: 1.7739. €: $1.1287+0.2%. BRL: 3.5293/$-1.3%. CRB: -0.7%. Crude oil: -2.8%. S&P500:-0.2%. Open interest: 192,023-2,731 (50-day stochastic: 60%; 125-day: 67%).
May London (LRCK6) settled in its bottom third (27%), up two dollars. Volume was thirty-one percent above average at an estimated 23,146 lots including 9,085 spreads 675 EFP's and 9 EFS's. 430 calls and 2,731 puts also traded. Open interest: 112,506-1,288 (50-day stochastic: 0%; 125-day: 17%).
The Green Coffee Association estimates that U.S. coffee-bean warehouse stocks rose 159,691 bags in March to 6,028,979 bags (see charts).
CFTC reports that large hedgers were net buyers of 6,477 lots of Coffee C decreasing their net short position to 41,416 lots. Large speculators sold 6,384 lots to cut their long position to 2,376 lots. Small traders sold 355 lots (long 4,576). Index traders bought 264 (long 34,464).
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