Coffee Commentary September 5, 2014

ICE Coffee Futures Finish Slightly Higher

Arabica coffee futures finished a little higher  Thursday, recovering from early losses.  The active contract for December delivery settled 15 points higher at 202.45 cents a pound.  The coffee market  today was able to recover after  it  was under heavy  pressure  early on the day.  A sharp rally of the US dollar influenced the market and all dollar denominated commodities.  The euro/dollar  dropped to a 14 month    low  after the ECB unexpectly cut the refinancing rate to the lowest level in 14 months. In Brazil, the real sinks also, on increased support for Dilma Rouseff according to recent polls. Weather forecast in Brazil continued to show a dry weather pattern for the main growing  areas until September 18 . 

 London - Opening weakness was well absorbed in London with the board uncovering light price fix buying after overnight longs released position. The market was not experiencing the same origin influence of yesterday with resting selling building towards the 2100 area. We have more certified stock numbers to be released after the close tonight and the market once more will expect increases. Grading over the last two weeks has been limited to around 158 lots so the net change is expected to be minor. The last figures reported the position edging above the 8,000 lot marker still very much on the lower side of the average Exchange stock. The ECC released some backed dated stock numbers covering June/July which reported an increase of 560,000 bags to just over 11 million. After the shipment numbers being suggested this number could be approaching 12 million as of end of August. Even this number is well short of the 17 million that was carried back in the summer of 2009.

No follow-through selling in London with the market lifting on the back of another aggressive rally in New York talking levels back to within grasp of the 2100 option strike keeping on track the Bullish technical configuration.