Coffee Commentary for May 5th

ICE Coffee Futures Close Slightly Higher on Low Volume

 

New York coffee futures basis July closed 125 points higher today driven by speculative day-trading. Volume was very thin today due to the absence of many industry participants because of the holiday in London. Throughout the day the market experienced some volatility trading in a 10 cent range. The morning session was more turbulent than the afternoon session with prices testing the 200 level and bouncing back to remain in the 200-210 level throughout most of the day.

 

Throughout the remainder of this week the market will remain in anticipation of yield reports coming out of Brazil as more and more coffee is delivered to the mills. While it is very difficult to obtain accurate estimates as of now, in 2-3 weeks the market will have a clearer picture of the damages caused by the drought. All eyes will also be on freeze scares in the next two months and it is possible that the market may remain very volatile throughout this time-frame.    

 

The Guaruja International Coffee Seminar is set to take place on the 7th and 8th of May this week. The objective of the meeting will be to discuss the current situation in Brazil and may lead to further insights into production numbers and expected yields.