Coffee Commentary for April 20th 2016

     On the day before first notice day in spot May, New York coffee traded mostly higher in spread-dominated action. May16-Jul16 traded to an 11-month high of -1.40¢ from its open at -2.05¢. After trading to its highest level since April 1st, active Jul16 closed near the middle of its range, still managed to close above its 200-day moving average for the first time since April 1st. This despite strength in the U.S. dollar, whose recent weakness has widely been seen as the catalyst for recent commodity-market strength.
    July New York (KCEN6) settled just above its midpoint (51%), eighty points higher. Volume was four percent below average at an estimated 42,837 lots including an estimated 8,220 EFP's, 441 EFS's, 412 TAS and 11,705 spreads. 7,571 calls and 4,716 puts also traded. The KCEN6-LRCN6 arbitrage: 57.12¢. Ratio: 1.7981. €: $1.1305-½%. BRL: 3.3511/$+0.1%. CRB: +1.9%. Crude oil: +4.0%. S&P500:+0.4%. Open interest: 188,616-1,649 (50-day stochastic: 43%; 125-day: 58%).
     Tenderable notices may be issued tonight against May16 for first notice day, tomorrow.
     July London (LRCN6) settled near its high (94%), up thirteen dollars. Volume was twenty-six percent above average at an estimated 22,175 lots including 7,516 spreads, 1,752 EFP's and 150 EFS's. 1,418 calls and 1,255 puts also traded. Open interest: 111,555-508 (50-day stochastic: 0%; 125-day: 14%). The Jul16 option series expired today (expiry price $1537). 38 $1550 calls and 255 $1500 puts traded.
     The European Coffee Federation reports that coffee stocks in Antwerp, Bremen, Hamburg, Genova Le Havre and Trieste fell 13,010 tonnes in February to 689,078 tonnes. The biggest drop was in Antwerp (down 16,233 tonnes to 317,689). Bremen stocks have not been updated since September. Total stocks are down 9,185 tonnes (1.32%) from 698,263 tonnes at the end of February 2015.