Evening Coffee By Societe Generale
New York coffee rallied 1¼¢ in early trade, fueled by light buy stops at 3-day highs, then staged a bigger rally during the active trading period (after 8 am NY time), taking out the early high by nearly two cents. Selling emerged near the middle of last Thursday's black body, which was also a 50% retracement of the move from Thursday's high to Friday's low. May16 closed just under one cent off the high. Key support should be found around today's open/low (123.75¢@123.70¢ in Jul16).
July New York (KCEN6) settled in its upper third (68%), 2.20¢ higher. Volume was fifty-two percent below average at an estimated 21,307 lots including an estimated 452 EFP's, 1 EFS, 264 TAS and 5,309 spreads. 3,709 calls and 4,407 puts also traded. The KCEN6-LRCN6 arbitrage: 54.15¢. Ratio: 1.7513. €: $1.1293+0.2%. BRL: 3.5251/$+0.9%. CRB: +1½%. Crude oil: 2.4%. S&P500:-0.1%. Open interest: 180,419-736 (50-day stochastic: 0%; 125-day: 38%). No notices were issued.
July London (LRCN6) settled one dollar off its high (89%), up eighteen dollars. Volume was forty-nine percent above average at an estimated 26,561 lots including 11,521 spreads, 530 EFP's and 28 EFS's. 5,280 calls and 710 puts also traded. Open interest: 108,870+1,528 (50-day stochastic: 4%; 125-day: 7%).
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development estimates that Vietnam's April coffee exports will total 203,600 tonnes. March exports totaled 181,200 tonnes. Jan-April shipments were up 45% year-on-year to 681,100 tonnes.
Uganda exported 1.67 mln 60-kg bags of coffee in the first half the Oct15-Sep16 crop year, the Uganda Coffee Developments Authority reports, up 5.3% from the same period one year earlier. March shipments totaled 347,838 bags, February 271,941 bags. April exports are expected to total 240,000 bags.
Brazil's Senate approved the impeachment commission yesterday which now has ten sessions to accept or not accept the report.
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