APRIL 12,2023.

Arabica coffee futures for May delivery settled 25 points lower at 190.25 cents a pound. Activity was boosted by spreads trading as we approach the first notice day for the May position on April 20. Volume reached 84,254 lots including 28,692 switches.  Despite commercial buying continued to support the market, specs showed caution as values are in overbought terrain and vulnerable to have a correction. Latin American currencies rallied on a softer dollar.  The firm oil prices added support. The USDBRL traded at 4.9160, the lowest level since June 2022.  The USDCOP traded at 4,440, not seen since Sep 2022. Certs stocks fell by 8,512 bags to 720,992 bags. Pending grading remains at 0.
Robusta Jul23 contract settled at $2332 +9 with a 2335/2296 range. Strong rally pushing into new highs. Majority of the strength in Robusta seemed to stem from continued Arb selling (sell NY buy Robusta) into passive origin selling scale up. A slightly weaker dollar gave a small tailwind for Robusta giving the spec community an ‘’excuse’’ to add to long positions. May23/Jul continues to hold strong trading 2.3k lots between 63/89 settling at +77. May23 2400/2450 callspread vs 2388Δ18 traded 2000x @ 16, May23 2400/2250 fence (to the call) vs 2381Δ52 traded 1000x @ 29, May23/Jul23 CSO 100/70 fence (to the call) traded 1000x @ 0. 8 trading sessions remain until May23 FND on April 25th, OI currently showing 30,973, plenty of time for AA’s but worth keeping an eye on considering the strength of that spread.