|
Arabica coffee futures recovered on Monday helped by a bullish sentiment of the commodity complex and firm currencies. The most active contract for July delivery settled 280 points higher at 183.10 cents a pound. Without fundamental news, and technical indicators with neutral values, short players opted to cover positions after Friday’s COT data revealed funds reduced substantially the long position. Coffee futures have been following a down trend since mid-April on perspective of a larger than previously estimated Brazilin crop. Concerns of slowing consumption has added the bearish sentiment. The commodity complex reacted today after Saudi Arabia cuts oil output by 1 million barrels a day after meeting with OPEC allies among worries over decreased demand. Commodities have fallen 11% so far this year as participants are anticipating a slowdown of the world economy. Latin American currencies rebounded today supported for higher crude oil prices. The real strengthened 0.6% to BRL 4.9600 helped by better economic Q1 data as well. Arabica certified inventories dropped 8,424 bags to 565,084. Pending grading 0. July options will expire Friday June 9.
Robusta Jul23 contract settled at $2608 +33 with a 2611/2550 range. Intraday volatility remains high but eventually flat price bounced off the bottom end of the recent range supported mainly by a rally in Brent Oil and strength in Arabica. Origin selling was limited therefore the speculative buying was met with little resistance. Jul/Sep continues to trade within the recent range, 5.5k lots traded between 30/35. Jul23/Sep23 20 put CSO traded 500x @ 10.
0 Comments
Arabica coffee futures rallied Thursday on speculative short covering. The action was encouraged by the strengthened of the July-Sep switch ahead of option expiration and the first notice day for the July position. The contract with most of the activity for July delivery settle 440 points higher at 183.05 cents per pound. Volume increase has been noted the last few sessions, a total of 49,350 lots were traded today including 14,505 switches. Both stocks and commodities gained today after the debt ceiling deal moved through the House of Representatives to the Senate overnight. The Dollar index corrected trading below the last 5 sessions lows with a new low of 103.43. The Brazilian Real and the Colombian peso also corrected finding additional strength along with crude oil. The certified stocks fell by 9,075 bags to 574,443 bags. Pending grading 0.
Robusta Jul23 contract settled at $2605 +49 with a 2619/2526 range. Robusta found speculative buying which was triggered by a short covering rally in Arabica. The fact of the matter is there are very few sellers in Robusta, with origin already very well sold. Any significant buying hits vacuums of selling allowing it to rally in the way that it did today. Structure also strengthened with commercial buying coming into the Jul/Sep. We saw decent volume on the front month spread today 5.3k lots trading between 33/40. Jul23 2400 put traded 500x @ 8, Jan24 2000 put traded 250x @ 34. |
|