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Arabica coffee futures for March delivery at the ICE exchange settled 50 points or 0.29% higher at 169.05 cents a pound. Activity remained light as predictable ahead of the holiday. Short term specs caused some volatility to the prices as they played both sides of the market. Forecasts of rains for Brazil main producing areas triggered some speculative selling early on the session. The anticipated rains will help to ease concerns after the recent dry and hot weather that have affected the coffee areas. The dollar firmed today putting some pressure on the commodity complex. The crude oil fell 3.0 % as the OPEC+ delayed the Sunday’s meeting that supposedly was to discuss output cuts. The ICE market will be closed tomorrow in observance of the Thanksgiving Holiday. On Friday the market will be open regular hours. Arabica certified stocks unchanged at 290,734, All bags graded today failed a total of 3,365 from Brazil pending grading increase 1,615 now at 17,625.
The active Robusta January settled $33 higher at 2515 after trading inside 2528 -2434 range. The market followed the NY action. After an early weakness speculative buying propelled prices to the higher settlement. Activity was light. Volume reached 20,159 lots, including 5,538 switches. The active structure Jan/Mar firmed again on dealers buying that anticipate a possible similar behavior as the Nov/ Jan. Some delays of the current harvest could boost the structure.
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Arabica coffee futures market closed lower today influenced by rain forecasts for Brazil and technical factors. The weakness of the switch and the proximity to the First Notice Day added weight on prices. The FND for the December position is Tuesday, November 21. The most active contract for March delivery at the ICE exchange in New York, ended 395 points or 2.25% lower at 171.20 cents per pound. Although the weather in the producing regions of Brazil has been dry and temperatures reaching 104o F. (40o C.) , weather agencies predict rains for next week that could be an important relief. Spec selling after prices could not sustain the advance above yesterday's highs led to liquidations. Overbought conditions make the market vulnerable to a correction. Latam currencies loosened a bit adding bearishness to coffee prices. Cert stocks were down 7,401 bags to 289,100 bags. Pending grading added 285 bags (Kenya) to 7,550 bags.
Robusta Jan24 contract settled +17 at $2566 with a 2594/2538 range. Robusta was resilient given the selloff in Arabica. Main flows today were continued origin selling scale up and spec arb selling (sell NY buy Ldn) keeping flat price buoyant. Volumes saw an uptick with 14.2k lots trading on the Jan24 contract. Jan/mar strengthened again trading 4.1k lots between 74/93. Options also saw a particularly busy day. Robusta Jan24 2150 puts vs 2580Δ4 traded 3000x @ 5, Robusta Jan24 2650 calls vs 2585Δ40 traded 2500x @ 67, Robusta Jan24/Mar 90/50 puts pread traded 2500x @ 18. Robusta Jan24 2300/2200 (1x2) put spread traded 2000x @ 2 |
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