Good morning, Happy Monday.
Friday night's respective COT releases revealed that in London, the funds added 1721 lots of new shorts, leaving us with a net short of 17,678, whilst in NY, the funds cut their net short by 5005 lots, leaving us 53,965 short as of last Tuesday . We believe there has been a further sell off on Arabica since last Tuesdays’ cut off on a weaker macro backdrop, whilst Robusta will be more or less unchanged.
In fundamental news over the weekend, Tristao were quoted in a Bloomberg article saying that Brazil may export 2-2.5m bags of Conillon in 2018. “Robusta from Brazils 2018 crop to be delivered to the U.S West Coast is trading at similar levels to beans from Vietnam”, the full report can be found below.
In macro news, Jerome Powell takes control at the Fed in the midst of stock market fears and rising bond yields. Non Farms on Friday reinforced the notion that the Fed could hike rates four times this year. German Chancellor Angel Merkel is allowing extra time for talks on renewing her government alliance with the Social Democrats. Party negotiators are meeting at 10am in Berlin after breaching a Sunday deadline.
At time of writing, Mar-18 Robusta is being shown at 1764 (unchanged) on the preopen, whilst Mar-18 Arabica is also being shown unchanged at 120.40.
GBP – 1.4105
EUR – 1.2444
BRL – 3.2191
Crude Oil -0.84%
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