Morgan Stanley Coffee Report - October 23'18

Arabica, 121.10, +3.45, shook off global risk concerns to claw back all but a penny of yesterday’s selloff.  Prices were supported early by value buying, yet volumes were muted even as the clock crossed the 8am NY hour.  Modest Brazil selling kept ambitions in check, but the thin trading conditions ultimately gave way to a chunky allocation at 11:20.  Our expectation is that this was an infusion of CTA buying triggered in the last couple days.  Sensing an opportunity, motivated trade specs threw fuel on the fire pushing the intraday high to its peak minutes later.  Interestingly KC ignored BRL weakness for much of the day even as KC prices remain above the multiyear median line in local terms.  Spot spreads finally tightened in as far at -3.65 as the short roll presumably began, yet end of day weakness in ZH (-3.75 settlement) once again confounded the trade.  London was unable to keep pace on the day, settling down $2 at 1719 on the day as X/F continues weak at -26.