Arabica ignored the early FX weights of the DXY and BRL to gain 190 points by mid-morning US time, yet was greeted by additional Brazil & speculative selling that capped the move for an eventual 95.35, +1.10 settlement. The intraday pattern clearly mirrored sugar – while ignoring the BRL after yesterday’s heavy correlation – and volume was a decent 48k+, albeit with roughly 18k spreads boosting the total. 12k+ of those were in the front month (led by nearly 10k K/N) as structure tightened down much of the board. K/N went out -260, matching the strongest settlements in the last month and a half (March 6 and Feb 14) since closing -255 back on Feb 7th. Robusta tracked the KC pattern as it typically does, yet couldn’t keep pace closing 1510, +11. The arb remains historically tight at 26.85, and the front month spread is ostensibly suggesting a near term demand story in London. K/N traded 2k+ times between -4 and -1, ultimately settling -2. Conilon trading seems quiet in origin based on trade house comments, while in-country stocks in Vietnam are fairly consolidated in a few strong hands.
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