Morgan Stanley Coffee Report - June 18'18

Coffee fell 85 points to settle 116.70, broadly influenced by the BRL and a weak overall commodity complex.  Attention was very clearly elsewhere for many traders with the World Cup a prime culprit.  Productivity concerns aside, traders seem to have reached an agreement that the path of least resistance and highest probability is lower.  Robusta engagement was low up until the close, suffering a $3 loss to close 1687.  MOC selling pounded the market into the red as spreads weakened a touch for the upcoming two periods (N/U +14, -2 and U/X -6, -1).  Colombia elected a new pro-market President, Ivan Duque.  President Duque is seen as an extension former President Alvaro Uribe & termed a “creature of Washington.”  The currency weakened slightly on the day, helping producers balance the futures market loss.