Morgan Stanley Coffee Report - January 22'19

Arabica fell 160 points to settle 103.35, trending irretrievably lower essentially from the time New Yorkers arrived at their desks. Earlymorning positive returns were in opposition to the bulk of other commodities as cynicism around US x China trade developmentspunished risk assets. Continued hot & dry weather were a positive counterbalance, yet ultimately was not enough to keep KC in the black. The BRL was a noted driver of price again, and a poor FX reception to comments from President Bolsonaro conspired to drag coffee lower. London has been trading a historically above average correlation to KC for the last 6 months (.9 R^2), so it came as little surprise that prices fell $22 to settle 1516 after losing $6 during yesterday’s solo performance. Noted size offers were regularly shown during both trading days, suggesting someone is doing their best to keep prices capped.