Morgan Stanley Coffee Report - February 11'19

A rough start to the week for coffee prices as N.Y. settled down 2.40 at 100.20 and Robusta dropped $26 to close at 1504, both basis March.  Arabica traded to its lowest level since the 3rd of January and worst settlement since the first trading day of the year. The day’s trajectory closely mirrored that of the weaker Brazilian currency and while some reports noted weakness due to rains in producing regions, from our vantage point,  the activity was more suggestive of a reaction to the currency.  Some smaller origins were noted throwing in the towel as prices revisited trading sub $1 for the first time since day one of 2019,  Open interest jumped by 6,258 lots on Friday’s weaker action, and, similar to today, the bulk of volume was weighted towards spreads in the midst of the traditional roll period.