New York coffee traded quietly lower in its first four hours today, light sell stops triggered below
yesterday's lows before all the market's participants were paying attention. A Bloomberg article
announcing the end of the 45-day Colombian truckers' strike then sent prices sharply lower, 6½¢
lower three hours hence, fueled by stops below the chart gap that had been holding up the
The government and the truckers' union reached an agreement on cargo prices and the gradual
removal of old vehicles but failed to agree on toll road and fuel costs.
September finished in its bottom quarter (23%), down 4.95¢. Volume was twelve percent above
average at an estimated 43,582 lots including an estimated 682 EFP's, 46 EFS's, 420 TAS and
12,833 spreads. 6,513 calls and 7,311 puts also traded. The KCEU6-LRCU6 arbitrage: 60.25¢-
4.36¢. Ratio: 1.7429-0.0407 €: $1.0957-0.6%. BRL: 3.2794/$-¼%. CRB: -½%. Crude oil: -½%.
S&P500: +0.4%. Open interest: 186,248-266 (50-day stochastic: 58%; 125-day: 47%).
September London (LRCU6) settled in its bottom quarter as well (24%), down thirty dollars.
Volume was thirty percent below average at an estimated 11,050 lots including 3,179 spreads
and 499 EFP's. 385 calls and 775 puts also traded. Open interest: 104,651+1,436 (50-day
stochastic: 46%; 125-day: 17%).
Brazil's national supply agency, Conab, estimates that privately-held stocks of coffee in Brazil
totaled 13.6 mln 60-kg bags at the end of March, down from 14.4 mln bags at the end of March
2015. Arábicas totaled 12.5 mln bags, conillons 1.12 mln.
Mild to cool conditions will prevail this weekend over Brazil's coffee belt, but conditions will be
warmer over the following week to ten days. World Weather, Inc.
According to the CFTC CIT Supplemental Report non-commercials were net buyers of 1,174
lots from July 13th to the 19th, holding a net long position of 36,489 lots. Commercials bought a
net 907 contracts during the same period totalling a net short or 75,995 lots. Index Traders sold
822 contracts being net long 33,011 lots.
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