Morgan Stanley Coffee Report

A corrective bounce perhaps out of shear downside exhaustion, or more cynically related to the release of some lower end crop estimates, along with lingering concerns over net drying throughout Brazil’s coffee belt.  For the first time since the 23rd of January New York was able to generate a higher high and low while London managed to accrete $20 at settlement, yet still traded a sixth day of lower highs and a fourth of lower lows.   On the third day of the official index roll, volume in New York was highly concentrated in March/May which traded 15,459 times in a range of 245 to 225 under, while another 4,381 May/July changed hands between 230 and 220 under. The dollar index has strengthened every day of the last six, but the effect of a firmer green back on coffee prices has a dubious correlation as the Real trades sideways, yet teeters on the cusp of a 3 ½ month high.  Tomorrow brings us March option expiration with open interest in the 145 strike balanced at around 1300 lots each, while the 150 call had 3,079 lots open and the 140 put 3,070 lots open entering the day.