Daily Coffee Commentary - June 29, 2021

​Arabica lost 250 point to close 160.20, while Robusta shed $36 to 1675.  Prices were under modest pressure early as risk management ahead of the next two day’s chillier forecasts in Brazil was taken care of yesterday and a stronger dollar overnight offered a headwind.  Overall trading was fairly dull however, and prices were in marginally positive territory around 8am.  Selling over the first hour of the traditional trading day led to fresh lows, but it wasn’t until 9:54 when around 1000 lots went through, 605 of them trading on the bid vs 326 on the offer that real damage was done.  Futures immediately bounced off the 158.15 low and were on the north side of 160 within 10 minutes, but follow up volume never materialized; with the axed selling done and resting bids filled quiet permeated the market place.  Private forecasters largely discount the likelihood of significant frost damage in Brazil with the coldest areas of Sul de Minas predicted to hang just above 0, though some patchy impacts may be noted.  Public forecasts such as CPTEC would appear more concerned, yet in all the market seems to be taking the risk in stride.  KCU/Z weakened 15 points to -2.90, hardly a signal of commercial fear, while RC U/X widened $3 to -15.  Arabica certs rose 7578 bags, 5388 Hondurans (Antwerp) and 640 Brazils (Germany), while Robusta certs fell for a 26th consecutive business day, a 155,333 aggregate bag decline since the May 20th  recent peak.