Daily Coffee Commentary - June 22, 2021

Arabica coffee futures for September delivery settled 195 points lower at 152.10 cents a pound. Volume  declined substantially as typical after the first notice day. A total of 26,146 lots traded, including 5,490  switches. The bearish sentiment was influenced by the USDA global coffee report. Despite that the individual  data by countries was already known, an adjusted of the initial inventories resulted in a balanced global supply  /demand with no deficit for the coffee year. At the same time, the sentiment was affected by a revision of the  
Brazil’s 2020/2021 output by Rabobank. The production was revised up to 72 million bags from 67.5 million  previously estimated. This will be the highest estimate for the 2020/21 production published. StoneX Brazil  estimated the production at 65.1 million. The bank conducts telephone surveys without visiting farms to make  their coffee estimates. A total of 99 delivery notices were issued last night. Certs stocks increased by 5,790  bags to 2,168,547 bags. Pending for grading decrease by 4,323 to 43,412. Grading today 7,325. Passed 5,790.  Failed 1,535.  
 
Pre notice day pressure weighs on values, with Robusta ending the session over 1% lower amid limited roaster  support. July21 working exposure stands now at 12,506 lots below certified stock levels which most likely will  be covered/ neutralised by financing rolls within the next 48 hours. Technically the market is approaching  oversold conditions whilst holding nearby average. Most players will mark the nearby weakness merely against  pre FND pressure and ultimately believe the baseline pattern between $1600 and $1593 willremain intact.