In a relatively slow day due to the upcoming holidays, Arabica coffee futures consolidated within the range of the last two weeks with the majority of the activity generated by short-term speculators. The reference contract for delivery in May closed 80 points higher at 185.65 cents per pound. The volume reached only 48,646 lots including 17,247 switches. The nearby switch remained weak as the structure tended to normalize. The forward curve shows slightly backwardation until the September position and then appears almost flat and with little contango. The COT report published by the CFTC on Friday revealed that the funds liquidated long positions, adding at the same time shorts to a net long of 28,469 lots. Certified stocks increased by 8,926 bags to 577,023 bags. Pending grading decreased 7,128 bags to 80,529. Grading summary on Monday: 20,401 total bags graded, 8,926 bags passed (6,451 BR, 1,375 MX, 1,100 PE) and 11,475 bags failed (3,690 BR, 1,440 PNG, 6,345 PE). During last week, the certs added 79,419 bags. Pending decreased 66,973, an indication that the flow of fresh coffee is in decreasing.
Robusta May24 contract settled at $3417 +59 with a 3415/3352 range. Strong recover from after Friday’s sell off. No clear reason for the rally other than a bounce of Fridays low. The key difference today was the layer of selling from origin, volumes not seen for a while. Outright volumes were very low only 5,877 lots traded on the May24 contract. May/Jul continues to operate within the recent range 87/96 range today on 1.5k lots. Robusta Jul24 3000 puts vs 3280Δ24 traded 1000x @ 75, Robusta May24 3200 puts vs 3380Δ23 traded 1100x @ 40.
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Arabica coffee futures closed lower on speculative selling as long players preferred to take profits after strong resistance against the previous session's highs halted an early rally. The most active contract for May delivery finished 85 points or 0.4% lower at 184.85 cents per pound. With no fundamental news, the action was largely steered by the technical price action. The dollar firmed today adding pressure on the commodities complex. Brazil's real ended weak at BRL 4.9958 near recent lows, encouraging selling in the local market. The attention of traders will be focused on the development of the Brazilian harvest, which begins in a couple of weeks. During the week, Arabica futures ended with a gain of 195 points. Certified stocks continued to increase, especially due to arrivals from Brazil and Honduras. Certified stocks increased 7,470 bags to 568,097 total bags. Pending grading decreased 14,425 bags to 87,657. Grading report on Friday: 17,825 total, 8,725 bags passed (3,085 BR, 1,650 GT, 855 NI, 3,135 PE) and 9,100 bags failed (6,545 BR, 275 GT, 2,280 PE). COT (CIT) Non-commercials decreased their long position by 3,680 lots to 50,569 lots long and increased their short position by 1,880 lots to 22,100 lots short, with a net long position of 28,469 lots in the week to March 19.
Robusta May24 contract settled at $3358 -27 or -0.80% with a 3428/3355 range. A mixed session completing a 3rd consecutive day of higher highs and higher lows. However flat price was unable to hang on to any of the gains made during the day being sold off in the latter part of the session. Commercial activity was light on the buy side but for the first time in a while origin selling was present scale up. Structure continues to operate within the recent range, stubbornly strong even with a recent increases in certified stock. May/Jul saw a 90/100 range on 1,828 lots. Robusta May24 3500 calls vs 3370Δ34 trades 1250x @ 65, Robusta Nov24 2500/2200 putspread trades 1000x @ 34. |
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